Friday, February 25, 2011

Magic Drafting 101

In the last month we’ve had a lot of new players come to our weekly limited tournaments, and I’ve found myself giving them the same handful of tips each week to get started. The main thing to keep in mind when drafting is that you do actually need to end up with a playable deck at the end.
This seems pretty obvious, but most players don’t follow this strategy. Instead, they try to choose the best card from each pack, eventually restricting themselves to a few colors. This leads often leads to decks that are slow, or lack punch or simply play inconsistently.
A good draft deck needs to build steadily, deal with your opponent’s primary threats and then drop a win condition within the first ten turns. To do that you need a good mana curve and a couple of bombs.
I aim for a mana curve that looks like this:

Converted Mana Cost                      Frequency
                 0, 1, 2                                  12
                 3                                           7                                    
                 4                                           4
                 5                                           2
                 6                                           1

A better player would probably keep a separate tally of 1 and 2 drops, but five categories is all I can keep in mind while I’m looking through cards. As a practical matter, missing your one drop doesn’t usually cost you more than a point or two of damage. Missing your first and second turn is a bigger problem. From experience, the above curve results in smooth game play and very few missed turns out of the first six. Keep a mental tally of each category as you draft and actively look for cards that fill gaps in your mana curve.
But this crescendo has to lead to something. Mathematicians, please skip the next sentence. Having three bombs in your deck means about one per 13 cards, and at turn six you will have drawn at least 13 cards, so you would expect to pull one of the three bombs. Statistically this isn’t quite right, but you should consistently pull one of the three in your first ten turns.
Most of the great, overpowered cards are going to be rares, but between junk rares and rares of the wrong color, you can’t rely on these. The presence of common and uncommon bombs should affect your draft picks even if you don’t have them since there is a good chance one will pop up.
For example, when drafting Scars of Mirrodin, I often end up drafting blue. Partially this is because blue is one of Scars of Mirrodin’s stronger colors, but the presence of Scrapdiver Serpent is a huge factor. I have been able to get one of these every time I wanted one during a Scars draft, and it has proven to be a brutal finisher. I wonder if Fangren Marauder will have the same effect on green in Mirrodin Besieged, but I’m not sure at this point.
It all looks basic, but when I manage the above curve with 3+ bombs I always come away with part of the winnings.

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